The success of DVD can also be traced to the magnitude of the benefit of its predecessors and to the low cost of software.

The list of features offered by DVD that were absent from VHS is significant. Home theaters were less common, so many people didn't have the hardware to really appreciate the better audio and video quality, but they could still see some benefit - plus they didn't have to rewind, they had direct scene access, there were all sorts of bonus goodies, and it had the familiar comfort of the trusty 5" silver disc. Moving from DVD to HD-DVD or Blu-ray is only going to yield benefits if you have hardware to see or hear the HD video and new audio formats. If you are still watching on a 21" JVC from 1993, neither new format offers anything that a $60 DVD player from the grocery store can't provide.

While many of those features that helped make DVD a hit (direct scene access, no rewinding, Dolby Digital audio) could be had on LaserDisc by the time DVD arrived, the LD software was large, cumbersome, and expensive, leaving it stranded in a niche market. MSRP for DVD's was much lower than LD and in some cases even lower than VHS (I recall an acquaintance remarking on how many times he'd rented The Matrix back in 1999 because the VHS was priced for rental only at $150, but I paid less than $20 for my DVD), and actual pricing online was often well below MSRP. Currently software for the new formats isn't priced to undercut DVD.

I'm a bit torn about these new formats. I really like having physical media on the shelf and I really want an HD format, but I see a great potential for both formats to spend all this time opposing each other in a desperate effort to win the format war, only to have an entirely different distribution channel like video on demand or downloadable content step in and leave both formats crippled. I really hope that doesn't transpire, but the opportunity for something like that to happen is worryingly great. For now I'm just sitting back and watching. Maybe in a year or so I'll think about voting for one side or the other with my wallet...