I also don't believe HD-DVD will be a "slam-dunk". Gonk as always has hit the nail on the head. To add to his excellent thesis, why would consumers pay more for an HD-DVD unit when in all probability there will be programs, TV programs that you are NOT allowed to record!! ( courtesy HDCP ) That right there will stop most regular people in their tracks I would think. HD or not it is a TV program. Any so called fears of recording the latest episode of a reality show and having it circulating on the internet is a paranoid delusion. Does it occur now? NO! Not to mention that compression technology is not even there yet to allow such "piracy" to be possible.
I await with interest the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States on the HDCP matter. Should they rule against Hollywood they will again have saved the industry from itself. If they rule for Hollywood, the industry will have shot itself in the foot with a medium sized howitzer.

Sorry, I did not mean this to be a political rant. Apologies to all.