I agree that we'll see a reduction in HDTV sales soon, but I don't think it will be precipitous. I look at the folks I know who aren't "into" this hobby like a lot of us are. There are lots of people who might only buy a new TV every decade or so, and there are a number of folks in that group who use satellite or cable and thus don't need to worry about the digital transition. Those folks will continue to buy only intermittently. (An example: I've got a coworker who has never bought a new TV in the 16 or 17 years that he's been married - he plans to get an HDTV at some point, but he has to get a new entertainment center first so he'll continue to use my old 27" Mitsubishi for a year or two. Since he has cable on all three of the TV's in his house, he doesn't have to worry about the digital transition.) We could even see an increase in sales of smaller displays over the next couple years - when folks ante up for a 46" or 50" LCD for the den, realize how nice HDTV can be, and decide to pick up a 26" HDTV for the bedroom. There may also be some early adopters of HDTV who are compelled to upgrade because of technology improvements (rear-projection lamps replaced with LED, plasmas that are resistant to burn-in, and LCD's with much better contrast), plus a fair number of those early HDTV owners got a bit screwed over by the transition to DVI/HDMI, so there's an incentive for them to step up to a modern display.

Which is not to say that everything looks rosy for display manufacturers. In some cases, it's been bad for a while. (Ask Pioneer, who has pulled out of displays entirely, or Panasonic and Sony who reported significant losses last fiscal year.) I just don't think we'll see sales drop off a cliff late next month or even next year. There will always be folks who wait for their TV to die before they replace it, which has been true for decades, and those sales will be slow and steady. There will also be folks who wait to upgrade to HD until their finances allow it (which may not be until 2011 considering the current economy) because they can get by with an existing analog TV using cable, satellite, or a cheap converter box.