As I read through several threads and see mention of "bugs" and "firmware upgrades" and "beta testing" etc., I see nobody mentioning what surely must be the biggest risk factor right now relating to purchasing any product.

In the industrial sector which I work in (aerospace), it is conservatively estimated that 50% of the supply chain (ie. companies) will not be in business by the end of the recession.

We already see what's happening in automotive.

You name it.

There's no reason to believe that consumer electronic manufacturers will not be similarly affected.

So what's the risk? Is it the warranty? After all, it won't be worth anything if the company you bought the product from goes belly up. But you know what? That's actually a small risk for reasons that I'll mention below. So what's the real risk?

What about the poor guy that buys his new piece of gear knowing that it's full of bugs BUT expecting that life today is the same as it has been in the past, and the manufacturer will just keeping patching that firmware until it gets it right. So what happens then when the manufacturer folds? Stuck forever with a buggy device.

My suggestion(s): make sure that what you buy right now has had ALL of the bugs worked out prior to buying it. If it works (bug free) right out of the box and for the next 30 days, then statistically-speaking there's an excellent chance that it will last through the warranty period.

Holding off on becoming an early adopter is an even safer bet nowadays than it has ever been. A product that's been on the market for six months is more than ever a much safer bet nowadays than one that's just been released (again with reference mostly to devices that are heavily dependent on firmware in order to function properly.)

Vaveat emptor!

There is risk but prices are also very low right now from bigger companies.

Outlaw is in an interesting spot... it seems like most of Outlaw's main employees also work for larger manufactures. I don't know how much inflow Outlaw needs to be sustainable.

I would point out that while TVs sales have dropped and KURO tvs are dead, no major (or even minor) producers have died yet.

Even before the recession, both warranty and long-term product support were issues worthy of consideration. How many receivers and DVD players have exhibited problems that were "fixed" in a subsequent generation while the original owners were left high and dry? How many "card cage" style surround processors spent years in production without getting any new cards offered? How many companies have shut down (M&K comes to mind as a recent example)?

You mention that possibly 50% of the supply chain companies in your industry are expected to fail during this recession. That magnitude of loss across the entire world economy would be pretty devastating (think of the associated unemployment rate it would suggest) so I think it's unrealistic to expect the same for other industries. Each industry will be affected differently. Some of the large players are clearly struggling - Sony reported large losses last year and expects similar losses over the next year, and Pioneer has basically withdrawn from home electronics to focus on car audio/video - but smaller companies like Outlaw are radically different business entities.

I've always felt that major purchases (which would include a lot of the pieces of gear we use in our home theaters) need to be informed decisions, and the company's ability to support your purchase over the life of the product is an important part of that process.

I have a prediction to make;

With so many people buying new HDTVs over the past two years, and the digital "transition" looming a month away, I predict that HDTV sales will take a nose dive in 2011 because most homes will have one. some people may buy a second smaller HDTV for a bedroom, game room, etc...but most people will not need a second or third.

Prices right now are very reasonable, so they probably will not get much lower. MAy new HDTV sets have been sold up to this point in time, how many will sell thuis year and next? What will electronic companies do sales tank?

I have a Sony KDS-XBR1 60 inch with the world famous optical block issue, so I wil probably be buying a new big HDTV in another year or so when my 3rd OB goes out (and Sony no longer has an obligation to replace it-and I am not going to spend $1000 for another new one).

cp,

I see you point...however, there are alot of 4 to 5 year old DLP, Plasma and LCD's out there.

Just like your 60" XBR1...they will begin to have issues...and the cost to fix them will be prohibitive.

The days of the family Zenith lasting 25 years are over. My guess is most folks will be buying & replacing their TV's every 5-6 years.

Pete

Petey,

sorry, but i disagree. Todays technology with plasma and DLP is far superior to what was available even 4 years ago. With a half life of 25,000 hours, that is a lot of TV.

I suspect people may replace a HDTV that they bought 8 years ago because the picture is so much better and prices have come down so far. But, folks that have bought in the last couple of years will not be replacing their sets for quite a while. That is why I think HDTV sales will start plumetting in another year or two.

Folks like me with the 1st generation XBR may end up buying a new set in a couple of years. But thats because of issues with that particular set. There was a class action lawsuit that Sony settled out of court with-much to the dismay of many XBR1 owners like myself.

Other Sony LCD HDTVs are very, very good.

Istand by my prediction that Sales of HDTVs will fall. Rapidly. What will those electroic companies focus on if it turns out to be true?
That was my point.

I agree that we'll see a reduction in HDTV sales soon, but I don't think it will be precipitous. I look at the folks I know who aren't "into" this hobby like a lot of us are. There are lots of people who might only buy a new TV every decade or so, and there are a number of folks in that group who use satellite or cable and thus don't need to worry about the digital transition. Those folks will continue to buy only intermittently. (An example: I've got a coworker who has never bought a new TV in the 16 or 17 years that he's been married - he plans to get an HDTV at some point, but he has to get a new entertainment center first so he'll continue to use my old 27" Mitsubishi for a year or two. Since he has cable on all three of the TV's in his house, he doesn't have to worry about the digital transition.) We could even see an increase in sales of smaller displays over the next couple years - when folks ante up for a 46" or 50" LCD for the den, realize how nice HDTV can be, and decide to pick up a 26" HDTV for the bedroom. There may also be some early adopters of HDTV who are compelled to upgrade because of technology improvements (rear-projection lamps replaced with LED, plasmas that are resistant to burn-in, and LCD's with much better contrast), plus a fair number of those early HDTV owners got a bit screwed over by the transition to DVI/HDMI, so there's an incentive for them to step up to a modern display.

Which is not to say that everything looks rosy for display manufacturers. In some cases, it's been bad for a while. (Ask Pioneer, who has pulled out of displays entirely, or Panasonic and Sony who reported significant losses last fiscal year.) I just don't think we'll see sales drop off a cliff late next month or even next year. There will always be folks who wait for their TV to die before they replace it, which has been true for decades, and those sales will be slow and steady. There will also be folks who wait to upgrade to HD until their finances allow it (which may not be until 2011 considering the current economy) because they can get by with an existing analog TV using cable, satellite, or a cheap converter box.

I am also pretty sure that the reduction will not be that great, more a leveling off. IMO, HDTV's are following the personal computer model with new technology and manufacturing productivity increases driving new enhancements and lower prices. I believe the combination will lead to people having more than 1 HDTV and result in their more frequent replacement.

I think we will see companies pushing the envelope to justify higher prices and margins. Some of the features that I think will get built into top of the lines sets will include the following:

1) DVR technology - With retail storage prices below $100 for a terabit of storage, it would not surprise me to see a struggling company like TIVO agree to do this.

2) Internet connectivity - With support multiple download services.

3) Higher resolutions - possibly starting at 2160p

I see all of these eventually being driven down into mid-market HDTVs just like 1080 has been.

Don't forget 3D, assuming that a standard gets adopted at some point. I think that's likely to arrive before we see resolutions move past 1920x1080.

Gonk:

You are probably right about the 3D, I had forgotten about that.

On the resolution front, Samsung is currently selling a 23 inch monitor with 2048x1152 for under $250 retail. Using the same glass would produce a 46" monitor with 4096 x 2304 so 2160 in my mind is a very reasonable next jump. I could sse a basic monitor at under $1000. Throw in mulitple tuners, other electronics and scaling firmware and a solution in the $3K range seems reasonable. They could even offer picture in picture with 4 1080p hd images.

Yeah, but computer monitors at those resolutions make sense - your source material is being generated in real time by the OS. I've got a 24" at work that runs at 1920x1200, and for CAD I would be happy to have something larger still with a higher resolution. An HDTV at higher than 1920x1080 is still just scaling a 1080-line signal. Scaling can be done quite well, but its still no substitute for content at the native resolution - and if it's done badly, it can even be detrimental. That's why I doubt we'll see HDTV's past 1080p for a bit longer yet.

I can't buy a 997 until December or January anyway, so I should be safe.