You are likely correct, but my worry is that such a stalemate will bear a resemblance to the DVD-A/SACD "stalemate" (which was finally "won" by SACD when new DVD-A releases pretty much stopped). With two competing formats on the market, retailers are going to be loathe to dedicate shelf space to stocking both, especially with DVD still (and for some time to come) the dominant format in the marketplace and thus requiring a lot of shelf space as well. I have no problem buying my discs online - maybe a dozen or less of the DVD's I have at home were purchased at a brick and mortar store, and CD purchases in the last seven or eight years are much the same way - but not all consumers are like me and limited retail availability will hurt both formats at some point. If their growth is stunted enough, they may take too long to reach a critical mass and end up getting beaten by some entirely different format (like downloadable content).