I think the capitalism side of things may have a bigger push in this than you would think. Once the price gets low enough all machine offerings will be DVD-HD, (after the format wars of course}. I wass listening to NPR's Market Place a couple of weeks ago discussing this. The feeling on the format wars may not even be played out by the consumer in a way you would think! The Porn industry has a greater impact upon this than you would think. It is a multi-billion dollar industry, and if it goes one direction, as far as formats go, the rest will follow. Here is the link for the program. Jim http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2004/12/21/PM200412215.html

I also don't believe HD-DVD will be a "slam-dunk". Gonk as always has hit the nail on the head. To add to his excellent thesis, why would consumers pay more for an HD-DVD unit when in all probability there will be programs, TV programs that you are NOT allowed to record!! ( courtesy HDCP ) That right there will stop most regular people in their tracks I would think. HD or not it is a TV program. Any so called fears of recording the latest episode of a reality show and having it circulating on the internet is a paranoid delusion. Does it occur now? NO! Not to mention that compression technology is not even there yet to allow such "piracy" to be possible.
I await with interest the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States on the HDCP matter. Should they rule against Hollywood they will again have saved the industry from itself. If they rule for Hollywood, the industry will have shot itself in the foot with a medium sized howitzer.

Sorry, I did not mean this to be a political rant. Apologies to all.

Hullguy is very astute to remember the clout of the porn industry. In the last video format war, beta vs VHS, porn was only available on VHS. Since a very high percentage of video tapes sold in the initial years of VCRs were porn, so VHS won.

One difference that may be important today is that there are a number of feasible alternatives for them. Before, was there anything besides VHS that many people would have? Key word is "many" or most.

I believe that VHS became the defacto standard because the paranoid entertainment industry (I use the term entertainment industry generically. Recording Industry, Movie Studios, or whatever is appropriate can be substituted) took the (Sony) Betamax to court. No other manufacturer (except Sanyo I think) would adopt the Beta format with potential lawsuit damages looming, so they started churning out VHS decks. What really drove the whole VCR/videotape market though was the realization by the (short-sighted paranoid) entertainment industry that they could make zillions re-releasing their movies on videotape. (The release of a movie to DVD/VHS today may be their largest source of revenue). Porn became a big chunk, but still only a fraction in comparison. This whole scenario of paranoia to riches had been played out years earlier when the audio cassette came out. The entertainment industry did everything in their power to stop the manufacture of cassette recorders only to realize an exponential increase in record sales. And here we are watching it play out once again, only this time the industry seems to be getting what it wants and everyone (including them) will suffer. But I digress....
Gonk is absolutely right. Competing formats will do nothing but doom them both. People refrain from purchasing equipment to play one format or the other, not wanting to make the wrong choice, waiting to see which one wins or becomes predominant in the marketplace. Without the equipment, consumers won't purchase the media, media sales lag, equipment sales lag, and everything just dies a slow, quiet death (SACD/DVD-A). I hope it doesn't happen with HD DVD, but with the different formats and the copyright infringement hysteria throwing up roadblocks, it doesn't look good.
Geeez...talk about a rant!!! Sorry

The Entertainment industry didn't realize the amount of money they coiuld make off of VHS until AFTER they lost the court case allowing movies and programing to be taped!

I agree with Boblinds. SACD and DVD-A are superior to CD in many ways. (The surround aspect is only one superiority. Increased sampling rates yield sound that finally exceeds my old direct-to-disc lps.) Unfortunately, the general buying public doesn't value high quality. They're impressed with the high quantity of "thousands of songs" on their ipods and mp3 players. People who buy Outlaw products are unfortunately a very small minority of people that watch television and/or listen to serious music. I'm frankly, not hopeful on the eventual success of any "boutique" medium whether sacd, dvd-a, or hd-dvd. The hardware will be there but the software won't due to lack of demand. Convenience of format trumps quality of reproduction.
That being said, right now there is a plethora of wonderful software. Anyone else hear the new Sonoma sacd called, "Music for Brass, Organ and Timpani"? Sublime!

Jay

It looks like somebody called this one just right. I can't find the thread now, but someone suggested that if a merge happened, they'd probably use the Sony hardware and the Toshiba software that way both parties get a "win" as it were. Check this out from The Digital Bits about the format unity talks.

The deal could be finalized as early as this week and announced shortly thereafter, ahead of meetings with manufacturers scheduled for May 16th (where industry approval for the format would presumably be solicited). The technology compromise would reportedly see the new format utilizing Sony's planned disc structure (originally designed for Blu-ray Disc) with Toshiba's software for data transfer and copyright protection (developed for HD-DVD).

Bill was paraphrasing from some online articles. Check it out! Exciting stuff!

and a week later, the possibility of a format war raises it's ugly head once again.

Yeah, looks more and more unavoidable. With the PS3 slated to be a $300 basic Blu-Ray player (with the option of getting a $450 version that will record to BD-R), it will be pretty interesting to see things play out next year.