Ladies and Gents,

Apparently, from what I've read, we can expect HD DVD players to become available near the end of next year. Assuming that there will be media available for each format, which (Blu-Ray or HD-DVD) do you hope wins the battle? Why?

In case you are wondering, I found this interesting tidbit.

I've been watching these two formats evolve for a couple years now. On the one hand, Blu-Ray offers more capacity, which is a plus - we can never have too much data capacity these days. On the other hand, the DVD Forum is backing HD-DVD. I hate format wars - as long as both formats are in play, the consumers are going to lose. Both formats are expected to launch in the US market at roughly the same time, both formats have support from several movie studios. If only one format launched, a significant number of HDTV owners would move to adopt it within the first year or so. With two formats competing with each other and the DVD format so well established (and offering so much better audio and video quality than was available when DVD launched in '97), both formats are going to have a hard time gaining as much market share. The only hope for consumers is a universal player, similar to what has come about for DVD-Audio and SACD, and I'm not optimistic that we'll see that until both formats have been on the market for a year or more.

the word is that hd-dvd is the front runner at the moment... it is sad thay greed wont allow a universal standard for dvd writeables and now it looks like hd dvds either...

I still remember the sweeeeet Sony Betamax video recorder that a friend of mine had in the early 80s. This was shortly before VHS caught on and stomped it almost out of existence. I, on the other hand, have the digital version of this, a hardly used $450 (at the time of purchase) Sony laserdisk player. At the time I purchased this, sometime in the mid-90s, there were 3 stores in Morgantown that rented laserdisks, with quite large selections of titles. Three months later there were no laserdisks to rent anywhere in town, including the A/V shop where I bought the laserdisk player. They did have the largest selection when I purchased the player. So if you feel the need to blame somebody, I guess that I'm the guy that (almost) killed the laserdisk. I guess that I'll just sit here and wait to see how this one shakes out before commiting.

Nah, that will never happen. I'll get the itch and have to purchase one or the other. So if you guys let me know which one you want to survive, I'll buy the other one.

Jeff

As highly as I anticipate the emergence of HD-DVD, I fear that the industry may encounter the resistance here that they've encountered with the hi-res audio formats: SACD and DVD-A. Apparently, the public at large thinks the sound quality of CD and the portability of MP3 is good enough.

Perhaps they also think that DVD is good enough (and, frankly, for most viewers with standard sized TV's, it IS.)

After visiting two friends this holiday who went for HDTV and have been unimpressed, I'm no longer convinced that HD-DVD is going to be a commercial slamdunk.

who in their right mind would be unimpressed with hdtv quality? the overall experience, price vs quality may be in question, but there is no denying anywhere that hdtv is not WAY better than sdtv or dvd quality. i guarantee that hd dvds will come out, now whether they stick or not remains to be scene, perhaps some kind of ultra hd is just around the corner...

the main factors for success will be two things, cost of the equipment and discs and availability of titles...

Well, my friends for two (even if I disagree with them) who probably are more representative of the majority of video users than most of us here.

And, by the way, you just can't express yourself at all without being obnoxious and insulting, can you curegeorg?

I think the biggest problem will be to get all the "regular" folk (yes, I'm calling us irregular ) to now plunk down some money for another "dvd" player to hook up to thier 21" tv, when they probably will not be able to see the difference.

I honestly think this will be a tough sell, regardless of who wins the format war - unless they can figure out how to make HD DVDs compatible with the current dvd players on the market.

Even without a format war, an HD-DVD format will be a more difficult sell than DVD was a few years ago. DVD offered so much more than VHS: improved picture quality, improved audio quality, true 5.1 surround, bonus features, and even the freedom of a disc format in lieu of tape (no more "be kind - rewind" to worry about). HD-DVD will offer basically just better picture quality when compared to DVD, and then only for those people with HDTV's (which is certainly a growing population, but still limited). Early adopters will in general be thrilled to get their hands on an optical disc HD format, but even many of them are going to be wary in light of the format war that at this point appears unavoidable. Unless there's a clear winner in the format war by the time prices come down from the initial format launch levels and the library of titles has grown to a respectable level, I'm worried that both formats may have a much harder time than either of them deserves when it comes to getting any significant market penetration. With the industry muscle behind them, I don't think we'll see a repeat of LaserDisc - at least one format probably survive and eventually achieve widespread adoption, but it may not happen for years.

As usual, Gonk has characterized this situation brilliantly.

You can take his scenario, apply it to CD vs. SACD/DVD-A, and get the real world situation. Consumers seem not to be adopting the new hi-res audio formats because they "only" offer better sound. Unfortunately, that better sound is really only apparent if you're a more-than-casual listener and you have a better-than-low-end system to reproduce it.

Similarly, HD-DVD will offer better picture but only for those with the attention span and the monitor to recognize it.

Actually, it occurs to me that we might see a repeat of LaserDisc. That is, a superior format that just ticks along as a connoisseur medium. We shall see....