It was disappointing back in the middle of August when I received the newsletter/note from the Outlaws with info about 950 problems and several other items. In particular the word that new products in the foreseeable future would not include a DLP projector was what caught my eye. Since my 950 is cruising along, no noise, I was hopping for a matching video mate in the form of a quality HD DLP projector without the absorbent overhead cost present in retail products. Unfortunately for many of us, it looks like the Outlaws will only target electronic components, which is obviously where most of their expertise lies. But even so, reading the "new product" discussions on the website from those promoting digital amps are the real hoot. It is funny and sad to see those exclaiming they can hear big differences in amps (when they are not clipping - less that .1 % THD, IMD and SRD - and the same peak output capability). Sorry - you're dreaming folks. They should focus on really hard problems like reproducing accurate and controlled sound fields in a room, or projecting a high quality video image at a cost well south of the price of an average compact car.

There has been a lot of discussion over the past few weeks on the web about new projectors from Panasonic, Epson, and Sony with retail prices under $3K and up to $4K. All will be LCD based, and only a couple units qualify as barely HD at 1280x720p native on the screen. Several people attended CEDIA last week and posted reports. The word from local retailers in Chicago is the Sony will market their contributions as "multimedia" and not for home theater - not sure why, but marketing guys make mistakes all of the time. The largest in the area (Abt) said they would not carry the cost effective versions, but rather they will stick to the VW12HT at the very high side ($7K+). (Look at the AVS site if you have not all ready or are interested in the speculation on HTPC, scalers, progressive scanner, performance, etc.) The only new DLPs in the actual HD realm (1280x720p - HD2 - single chip 12 deg. Mirrors - LVDS - DDR) are $10K plus. The price is primarily due to mark-up for all the "out-stretched hands" in the middle since its not likely that the BOM for any of the exhibits is greater than $1K. That's not to say the published spec's don't look good - they do - but the $9K mark-up from actual cost to the user is way to big a chunk to swallow. I guess they (TI) are continuing to target several thousand products per year in HT and not substantial volumes. The prime example is the new InFocus Screenplay 720 using the new HD2 chip set from TI. The spec's look great - but, at $9995- sorry, no sale! There are several manufacturers trying to pawn off 1024x768 DLPs using last years parts at $5K and more - $2500 maybe for old stuff, but not at $5K+.

This unfortunate state of affairs in the front projector product line-up is especially disappointing with an understanding of what is possible. I wonder if TI demands a specific retail price, and freezes out manufacturers who potentially would not hold the line and actually compete with other manufacturers. No one wants competition, just a monopoly in all businesses, although they seldom admit to it in public. Ask good old SBC (al la Ameritech) here in the Windy city where they have a dis-information campaign to say they should not have to allow other local competitors to use "their" wires, and "oh yea, by the way" they need a lot more money from us for the privilege. SBC conveniently forgets that the wires were built and paid for in another era by a captured user group without options for competition and at the cost of "no progress" in telecom technology, but that's a debate for another discussion and another day. Maybe Sony will perfect their light grating projection system in the next couple years and inject a little competition into the high quality, digital projector marketplace. Since the Outlaws will not enter the projector fray, it looks like the marketplace is several years away from being a buyers market with actual competition. My problem is the old FP Mits' is getting a little old and may die any day.

My personal favorite is when it's day and night, obvious, unmistakable, yet only observable in sighted conditions and cannot be measured.

Huh?

I too was disappointed at the sight of the Outlaw newsletter stating no projector. I think the performance/price point the wanted to achieve was just not there. Also I speculate they would not want to deal with the hordes of problems they would have to deal with. Dead pixels, dust blobs, screendoor, rainbows, and anything else that would fill this forum with negativity. The new products by sharp and sim2 do sound promising. Although the sony HS-10 is at my pricepoint. I personally would love to have the new JVC. I think it would be a giant undertaking on the part of Outlaw to put out a projector. One they have obviously felt they are not ready for, being the standup company they are. I just wish their new products are something we really want. Not plain-jane amps that we already have. I want the new products to be something we really feel we need. A new projector definately comes to mind.

On the other hand I respect the Outlaws choice to stick with their core skills. It's often foolish to wander too far from a companies core area of expertise.

Maybe they could relabel an existing product.

I thought that PLUS and InFocus would come out with 720P HD2 units in the $5K range and run away with the market -- that hasn't happened. Everyone is blaming TI for pricing the DLP chips for enthusiasts only. I met with TI back in May, and I know they're pricing the units much lower for mass-market RPTVs.

-avi

If Samsung releases the 61" DLP set as rumored it will fit just perfectly in my room.....

Charlie the HLM617W? I looked up the first 2 Samsung DLP that were coming out just as I purchased my LCD. The pic was impressive on the showroom floor! I did talk to a salesman who had been at CEDA (not the last one, the one before) who mentioned a possible problem with the first Samsung DLP’s with heat. I did not look into any possible details on this subject further once I purchased my set and if it had manifested (or not) as a consumer issue.

Nice technology.

My understanding is that there are actually 4 sets so far - two 43 and two 50 inch. Apparently there are some important differences in the video scaleing hardware etc betweeen the versions.

I've never laid eyes on the Sammy, but the other DLP I've seen is encouraging. One obvious thing was the nature of the picture - they just don't look like glowing tubes. To me the colors in the DLP systems were more 'film like' for lack of a better term.

Once they mature I think there is great potential.

The state of HD or near-HD projectors available at a reasonable price continues to be a disappointment. The price for the new InFocus and Toshiba unit (using the HD2 chips at 1280x720) appears to be about 70% mark-up. I wonder who is actually manuf. the unit – Toshiba? Or are they contracted to a factory on the mainland in China for about 10% of their list? The retail price for the new units will be $10,000 – OK, $9995. Hey – it’s charge what you can get away. It’s like the TV ad – stand in front of the mirror and if you read “sucker” across your forehead, then lay out the cash. This type of market only works for two situations: 1) no competition for a clearly superior technology and performance, and 2) control the market price by collusion. I do not think it is the former or we would not have rainbows and headaches and 2KHr lamps. Besides, I do not see any of them putting 1920x1080p on the screen at 120” diag., @20’, 1000 L and 2000:1 contrast for $10K. The cinema guys back off the theater units for $50K, but what fun is that.

Based on the list price, I calculate the cost for the new HD2 units as follows:
Minimum --> Maximum
TI parts to manuf. $800 $1000
Additional materials $100 $ 200
Assembly cost $200 $ 300
Manuf BOM $1100 $1500
Cost to Distribution $2200 $3000

Cost to Dealer $4400 $6000
(assume 10% for Rep orgs.)
Cost to Consumer $8800 $10000
(assume 10% off to beat the competition)

This is the normal consumer products mark-up margins, with some in the chain making a lot of money and doing little for it. And don't give me the stock and store-front argument, the web guys have very low cost to blow stuff out at retail. The Outlaws should be $3995 to their customer, or at most $4495 out of the chute. They apparently must buy as a distributor. The way I read them is that (1) they are already making lots of money on the electronics (because IT’S GOOD STUFF) – and they don’t need any more money, (2) who needs the support headaches, (3) TI and the big guys are fixing the price with no market dynamics, and they will not let them (Outlaws) in the biz at their cost for a unit, approx = $2200 à $2500, or (4) they are waiting for LCDs to get good enough for some competition at $2000 --> $3000 retail. It may not happen, but we will see what happens when the new Sony and Panasonic projectors get out there over the next few weeks. JVC has a new projector (SX1) at $10K that sound on paper as good as the DLPs – we will wait for some test data when they deliver next month. Yes, it is a sad state of affair for those of us without a spare $10K lying around. The kids still have to eat, and the bank wants the mortgage – it’s depressing.



[This message has been edited by JDB001 (edited October 23, 2002).]

JDB:

I hate to tell you this, but you are dramatically underestimating the cost these projectors. Consider the following:

* Cost of HD-2 plus the associated ASICs needed to drive it is more than you estimate.
* Cost of the lamp/ballast, assembly, etc.
* Cost of the scalar electronics. If you do it right, it isn't cheap.
* Cost of the optics: Lens/color wheel/associated light pipe components, etc.
* Cost of the power supply, fan, misc. electronics.

Oh, and do you think it costs anything to assemble and test. How about ammortoization of the cost of software development and integration of hardware components. How about tooling ammoritzation?

Opps, I forgot that there is marketing to consider, and THEN you get to the profit.

I doubt that there is any collusion. Me thinks that TI would LOVE to drive the cost down if they could. But, right now, it looks as though about $9-12K is the right ballpark for an HD-2 based front projector.

But what do I know, I'm only a dog!

ARF ARF, says Iggy.