I stumbled onto this tonite...I must say I agree with author about Sony's arrogance.
Check it out...

http://www.hometheatersound.com/editorial.shtml

Well said.

Blu-ray's launch has definitely been a severe non-event. The best case scenario for this format war is for one format to simply go away, and at this point the most likely candidate for the disappearing act is BD. Unfortunately, the odds of that happening even with the mess that has been BD's launch are very close to zero...

Gonk, I wouldn't count BD out just yet. Don't forget that in less than three weeks, about a 400,000 PS3s are going to make it into people's homes, and each one will have a BD movie title in them. That, alone, will change things, as will the pending arrival of more BD players that do a better job than the admitedly poor showing of the Samsung unit. I've already seen the Panasonic model in a store last weekend, and despite perhaps another delay, the Sony unit should appear before the end of the year.

This one is far from over yet, and you have to factor title availability vs. player cost vs. player features vs. player supports, etc. People such as the columnist in the link above need to be careful not to confuse the quality and benefits of the format with the execution of the format in any one player. It is WAY too early to declare winners or losers.

Sony is counting on the PS3 to win the format war for them, and it certainly should achieve much higher market penetration than any dedicated players for either format. The Panasonic and Pioneer Elite players should give the format some really worthwhile players supporting the format, and it's entirely possible that six months from now we'll have forgotten how clumsy the Blu-ray launch has been, but at this point it's surprising in part because of how much of an advantage many perceived in favor of Blu-ray just a year or so ago.

Podboy,
Sounds like the hemorrhaging has started, but the tourniquet is keeping the bleeding from freely flowing.
It will be interesting to see if Sony's surgeons can operate to successfully save their baby, or if it will just bleed out and die like the previous family members.
(Sorry for the gross imagery, but that's what comes to mind. Again.)

Lonster

Up front, let me not that I'm not taking either side for now, but it should also be noted that in their most spectacular failures such a Beta, MD, and of course, lest we forget Elcasete, they had few other partners on their side. Here it is the reverse, with the HD-DVD folks having the shorter list, particularly on the hardware side.

Let's not forget UMD - who wouldn't want to pay double the price of a DVD to watch a teensy movie in the john? The way studios are backing out, not many of us.

Sony have delayed their very own player yet again, this time to December, due to those pesky "software issues." To me, this doesn't bode well for the BD performance of the upcoming PS3, due out before that.

The success of DVD can be traced to hardware ubiquity - in PS2s, Xbox, PCs, Macs, etc., and in all of them a compelling reason to have a player. While DVDs in PCs and laptops gave portability to watching movies, the upgrade to BD or HD-DVD in PCs won't break any barriers. Once people buy into a format, they're stuck with certain movie choices, PC choices, game system choices, etc. AND upgrade everywhere they use the discs. I'm betting we're looking at dodos here.

The success of DVD can also be traced to the magnitude of the benefit of its predecessors and to the low cost of software.

The list of features offered by DVD that were absent from VHS is significant. Home theaters were less common, so many people didn't have the hardware to really appreciate the better audio and video quality, but they could still see some benefit - plus they didn't have to rewind, they had direct scene access, there were all sorts of bonus goodies, and it had the familiar comfort of the trusty 5" silver disc. Moving from DVD to HD-DVD or Blu-ray is only going to yield benefits if you have hardware to see or hear the HD video and new audio formats. If you are still watching on a 21" JVC from 1993, neither new format offers anything that a $60 DVD player from the grocery store can't provide.

While many of those features that helped make DVD a hit (direct scene access, no rewinding, Dolby Digital audio) could be had on LaserDisc by the time DVD arrived, the LD software was large, cumbersome, and expensive, leaving it stranded in a niche market. MSRP for DVD's was much lower than LD and in some cases even lower than VHS (I recall an acquaintance remarking on how many times he'd rented The Matrix back in 1999 because the VHS was priced for rental only at $150, but I paid less than $20 for my DVD), and actual pricing online was often well below MSRP. Currently software for the new formats isn't priced to undercut DVD.

I'm a bit torn about these new formats. I really like having physical media on the shelf and I really want an HD format, but I see a great potential for both formats to spend all this time opposing each other in a desperate effort to win the format war, only to have an entirely different distribution channel like video on demand or downloadable content step in and leave both formats crippled. I really hope that doesn't transpire, but the opportunity for something like that to happen is worryingly great. For now I'm just sitting back and watching. Maybe in a year or so I'll think about voting for one side or the other with my wallet...

I worked a video rental joint in the '80s, and it was the "sell-through" pricing of VHS (IIRC it started with Top Gun at $20) that really spurred the growth of VHS prerecorded tapes, without which the idea of "home theater" would have been an exotic concept reserved for those of us who bought LD. As you say, gonk, the agressive pricing of DVD (I remember buying new titles on Amazon for $10 in the late 90s), combined with all the added benefits over VHS, made the upgrade worthwhile to the Wal-Mart customer.

Without the same "order of magnitude" reason to upgrade, both HD formats are destined to be marginalized (which isn't good considering the investment). One or both of them may have some tricks up their sleeves, but with on demand content coming of age (and hardware provided by broadband companies), they're going to have to raise the bar higher to win folks over.

I'm on the fence, as well, but right now it's a nice to have, not a must have...